Trigger is an avid punter on the horse racing and has been for a number of years. Trigger is also a lover of statistics. After 25 years of stumbling around in the dark and having the highs and lows that all punters seem to relish, he took a break from investing on the equine athletes but continued to gather statistics and follow the horse racing, without the angst of a financial investment, that more often than not resulted in a loss.

The time available to make use of those statistics come about in unfortunate circumstances. In late September 2019, I was the subject of some sort of intervention when a good mate and my employer at the time M, decided that I was looking ill enough to be taken to hospital. I had been feeling “off” for a number of weeks but as I was organising a function for the Australian ex-pat community in Ho Chi Minh City I thought I could get through AFL Grand Final weekend and then go off to the doctor. In fact, I had been to a doctor that same day and was waiting for the results of blood tests. M and others decided I couldn’t wait and spirited me off to the French – Vietnam hospital.

Discover the joy that these functions bought to ex-pats under the AFL header.

Anyway, tests were run and I was admitted. I woke the next morning to the sight of a very good mate, sitting at the end of bed with tears streaming down his face. This can’t be good I thought. Next, a young female doctor enters the room and I question her, “yes” she answers “you are dying, cancer everywhere”. My telephone then rings with an unknown caller and it is the doctor from yesterday imploring me to come and see him immediately as the blood test results were not good! I replied that I was already in hospital. Then the first good news for the day. The senior doctor on duty for the day enters the room, scowls at the female doctor and issues his news, “no sir, you are not dying and it will take me 14 days to cure you”. Well that’s better I mumble as I am moved to a private room so no other person can infect me further with any other horrible disease. Everyone entering my room is gowned up to the max and all wearing masks.

I had been diagnosed with a little known disease named Melioidosis. The key points from Wiki include,

v Most people exposed to B. pseudomallei experience no symptoms; however, those who do experience symptoms have signs and symptoms that range from mild, such as fever and skin changes, to severe with pneumonia, abscesses, and septic shock that could cause death.

v The signs and symptoms of melioidosis resemble tuberculosis and misdiagnosis is common.

v Approximately 10% of people with melioidosis die from the disease. In less developed countries, the death rate could reach 40%

I was in a less developed country.

I was in the septic shock range but the Doctor had said to give him 14 days to cure me. That was about 14 more days than the female doctor was giving me, full stop.

On Day 12  of 14 the Doctor advises that the antibiotics available to him were not killing Melli and he wanted me to go to a hospital in Australia, “we can’t have a foreigner dying in a local hospital”.

It’s times like this when mates get together and work things out, things that you don’t know about and can’t appreciate until you are in a stronger place at a later date and then put the jigsaw together.

There are too many people to mention here and my biggest concern would be leaving someone out so I will not try. I have expressed my gratitude to those I am aware of in person and of their work, for which they wanted no thanks, it will never be forgotten. Next thing you know, I am arriving at the Austin Hospital in Melbourne and being given the VIP treatment at reception and red carpeted to a room.

I am on the strongest antibiotics available and on Day 4 at the Austin, Melli is still running rampant inside my body. Day 5 and signs are better, they seem to be getting on top of it. Australian television was not much better than the local version back in Asia but the coverage of the Caulfield Cup Carnival provides a lot of entertainment.

Interesting, to me at least, the only other person I know of who has had a fight with Melioidosis is gun race-caller, Matt Hill.

At this point of my life I hadn’t had a real punt in about 10 years. I had still done form every week, played around with systems, put together excel spreadsheets of same and kept all the records of how all the different systems performed.

The Doctors and staff at the Austin continued to get on top of Melli, and word got out that I may only be required to stay at the Austin for another 5 days. I couldn’t be pricked, prodded and poked too much more or for too much longer. Then 2 young ladies I thought were on some school project visiting sick people, inserted a PICC line in my arm and I knew I was soon to escape.

One month in hospital(s) and time for some love from Mum.

However, I can’t leave my time at the Austin without recounting a few highlights, apart from their great care and professionalism, they were,

# The Porter who came to see me asking for advise about dating the girl from Da Nang he had met recently on a holiday in Vietnam.

# The Dietician coming to see me and telling me that as I needed to put on weight, they were now going to serve me morning smoko as well as arvo smoko and would I like the cheese and biscuits or the cashews. I was having the cheese and bickies in the afternoon so opted for the cashews. Next morning as I heard the coffee trolley rattling up the corridor the salivating began, really looking forward to the cashews. The plate of cashews arrived, all 5 of them!. I’d be a heavy weight before you knew it!

# The pretty, young Viet Kieu nurse who came to say good bye to me at the end of most of her shifts. It gave her a giggle each time, hearing an Australian bidding here farewell in her mother tongue. I think she was actually born in Australia.

# The matron, of Vietnamese descent, who started to abuse me in Vietnamese because I would not speak to her in Vietnamese. She then copped rather a spray, in Vietnamese, and found out that mine is quite rudimentary and doesn’t lend itself to talking about medical procedures. Dough Mare!

# Being told, after enduring the camera down the throat, that “my lungs were beautiful”.

Then it was down the highway to Geelong, with Jimmy behind the wheel. Of course the radio was tuned into RSN and the punting information flowed all the way to G Town. Patrick and Billy were the combination of the moment and Nick Ryan was the young gun trainer to follow.

My interest in country racing was piqued.

We arrive at the Geelong Hospital, they run the basic tests and I am admitted. During the admission process into the “Hospital in the Home” program, I am introduced to Dr. Harry, who sees me as a project, Harry tells me that he is the Tropical Disease specialist at the hospital. I think to myself that he must have plenty of spare time, I lived in Geelong for a long time and in no way could I describe it as tropical. Later I learnt his title also included “infectious disease”. Little did I know then that in 3 months time any spare time he had would be nothing but a memory.

While recovering at Mum’s place (222) was a relief after spending a month in hospital, I knew sleep was still going to be difficult to come by. Remember that PICC line that I had “installed”? It was still in my upper arm and now attached to a bottle of antibiotics carried in a bag around my waist via a tube. Now, I am a restless sleeper and didn’t want to either strangle myself or detach myself from the tube during the night. We managed. We had too, it was in for a few more weeks.

Next morning I pulled out the new laptop and discovered it really was new, not a single document, spreadsheet, presentation or other file contained wherein. No information recorded but plenty of time to start anew. A visit to the GP, who was a neighbor during my hay day many years ago, and another catch up with Dr. Harry that morning set my goal for departing Australia at zero +90 days.

The bottles continued to be changed daily,there were numerous trips to the GP and to the hospital for further tests and in late December, hopefully, a final trip to see Dr. Harry. He gave me an early Christmas present, I was clear of the melioidosis and he and the GP were happy with my recovery. I could return to Vietnam mid January provided I came back to Australia in early May for consultation with him and I keep up with the antibiotics for another 3 months. Check and check, the antibiotics were now in tablet form, tablets the diameter of a 20 cent coin. The PICC would be unpicked in a couple of hours.

A ticket was purchased to travel from Melbourne to Ho Chi Minh City (and return in May) and all looked good with this world.

Or did it?

A week out from the departure date and I have been actively entering data and searching this data for what facet of form to begin finding winners with when some lovely lady on early morning television starts to tell us about this dangerous virus in China and that it could soon be worldwide. I comment to my sister that I wouldn’t be too concerned about this Covid virus until a couple of thousand a day start dropping dead. I had lived in Asia for many years and numerous cases of bird ‘flu and pig ‘flu had not lived up to the hype, this was just another warning to not cross contaminate when cooking with chicken.

Little did I know at the time that Dr. Harry was about to start earning his keep. Infectious Disease specialist indeed.

So I arrived in Ho Chi Minh City just prior to Tet 2020, the Chinese New Year, the most exciting time of the year for Vietnamese. Think Christmas Day, New Years Eve and your 21st birthday party all rolled into one with the party being hosted by and at Disney Land. Think four old fashioned Good Friday’s all rolled into one for ex-pats.

So, I had 2 weeks of R&R to get through before thinking about my return to work, I did mention that the 4 or 5 official days of the Tet holiday go for about 2 weeks didn’t I? There is not a lot to do for ex-pats during the Chinese New Year and although it’s not nearly as bad as the first few years I spent in Vietnam, there are still many restaurants closed, bars work on restricted opening hours and transport options are few. The only answer to relieve the boredom was to continue pumping data into the excel spreadsheet. The highlights of these 2 weeks were the traditional pork and egg dish (Thịt kho trứng) that is served in most households over the holiday period. I think this dish was the key to the Vietnamese deflating the American and allied forces in the Tet Offensive of 1968. They threw these eggs, that have been boiled for numerous days and resemble rubber hand grenades, at the enemy.

Right after the celebrations were over I had a chat with the employers about returning to work and the decision was made that as I was still on the antibiotics and that nobody knew what was going to happen if this Covid continued to concern the health authorities, worldwide, If I returned to work I would be sharing a mini bus with other people. We would wait another month before another round of talks took place. I took plenty of precautions by staying in the one house and not moving around too much. My thoughts behind this was that if Covid was ever going to take off anywhere it could very well be Ho Minh City which is very much a high density living type of city.

It is something like 600 people per squarekilometre in Vietnam compared to Australia’s 6.

Returning to work was put on the back burner and the trip to Australia in May was looking very much in doubt. Doctor Harry wouldn’t miss me as I presumed his workload had ramped right up.

The result, the data base was building up quite nicely and I was about to make a decision on what data from these results I would first commence to analyse. Time for decisions and I did make a momentous decision after giving the matter a great deal of attention. Forget the Metropolitan meetings, forget betting on the best horses and take a completely different tack. I was going to concentrate on Maidens, BM58’s and BM64’s. Out goes the Metropolitan meetings and Country Victoria racing would be visited, scrutinised and dissected.

See details of these race classifications under the Triggers Stable header.

I did not discard the records I had kept and still use them up until this day, however my focus was now directed elsewhere, Maidens and their many types, plus the lower range but amply supplied BM races. March the  8th 2020 was the kicking off point. Then back to thinking about this menace called Covid.

Some key statistics to consider here was that the Vietnamese Government suspended the entry of most foreigners from the 22nd of March 2020, a suspension that would end almost two years later in November 2021.

Australian borders were closed to all non-residents on the 20nd of March 2020 with returning residents required to spend 14 days in quarantine in designated hotels. Yes, the check in/up appointment with Dr. Harry was officially off and it would be tough getting into Australia and impossible to back into Vietnam. I wasn’t even going to take the chance that I was considered a resident of Australia at this point. The rigmarole and hoop jumping I had to do to prove I was who I said I was and that I was in fact Australian was enough when I was in the country six months back just trying to stay alive.

I supposed at the time that I had at least until the end of March to get some sort of new data base together. I scratched (red tagged) the BM58 and BM64 races.

Details of Red Tagging can be found in the 5S dropdown under the Efficiency header.

First I had Melli to contend with and now there was the Miley (Cyrus/virus) to face and as March turned into April and April into May etc., at least I had the Maiden database to keep me occupied. The city was not in full lock down as yet but movement between districts and even wards was restricted. It was early October before I got the call, Darren would you like to recommence work in November and how do you feel about work in Vinh Long.  Yes, I would love to recommence employment and yes, Vinh Long sounds fine with me. It did remind me of Uncle Vin who for a long time took 2 and 4 & 4 and 2 in the Daily Double. Here was my Daily Double, earning some cash again and in a new location.

I found very pleasant lodgings on the banks of the Cau River, across the river being the City of Can Tho, the fourth most populous city in the country. My actual accommodation was actually in the middle of nowhere, in the hamlet of Binh Minh, the perfect place to travel to and from work and sufficiently away from any night life so that my recovery from near death could continue without any distractions. Who wouldn’t love that for twelve months, the projected duration of the project.

Life on the Mekong Delta was quiet, giving me plenty of time to continue with data collection and by the end of November, I had enough data available to decide how to best attack the punting future. Where to start and what data to start with. I concluded that every race was indeed a race and most if not all races were won by the quickest steed over the given distance of the race. Details of the Trigger Time Ratings can be found later in your read.

Progress on the punting database continued as did the progress on the construction site although on site, progress was not as speedy as I had anticipated. I am firmly of the belief that we can all learn new things at anytime so what did I do? I decided to have a 5S training course for the Site Manager, his assistant Manager and 2 of the Leading Hands, to be fair, I am not sure they are referred to as Leading Hands in Vietnam.

Details of 5S can be found under the Efficiency header

As we will all learn later on as we read further, change can only be made if a person is willing to change or if there is a philosophy of acceptance to change in the company as a whole. Unfortunately, neither individual nor construction company could fight their aversion to trying something new.

The saving grace was that my new administration clerk was willing to learn, wanted to learn and had a mind like a sponge. I also had the maiden data collection to continue in the evenings and the Trigger Time Ratings to put together Friday through Sunday night.

The Miley was still swinging her sledge hammer and now people all over the world were listening to her father and dying with Achy Breaky Hearts, lungs and other various organ failures. From all reports, two of the biggest knuckleheads ever to be entrusted with the leadership of major countries seemed determined to kill as many people as possible, drinking bleach or using a hair drier up the proboscis were a couple of their solutions to saving mankind.

The completion of six month living and working in the Delta came and went, Dr Harry would need to save the world without my input and my first mua mua (wet season) living in a swamp was about to begin and there was even some visible signs of progress on building site. June passed with the Miley continuing unabated and then as July approached, full lock down, social distancing and care packages from the wife.

Apart from continuing data collection and the putting together the TTR’s I can report that there were more lowlights than highlight over the next few months.

The Astra Zeneca vaccine was being rolled out in Ho Chi Minh City but us folk living through lock down in the Delta were stuck, no intra Province travel was allowed. I then had to decide if I wanted to have the Chinese vaccine administered but then even that decision was taken away from me as the local health authorities had decided that the Chinese vaccine could not be used on foreigners let alone diabetic foreigners. Ah well.

I am a person forever looking for a challenge and the challenge I undertook during lock down was to teach the three bitches at the Home-stay, all heavily pregnant at the time, to understand English. Mission accomplished after 21 days and three days later there were a total of 27 pups to care for. They neither know nor understand how to say “no” to the local dog pack.

I was finally granted permission to travel to Ho Chi Minh City in October and was vaccinated but now travel was banned for a return to the Delta until I had had my second shot and that was scheduled for mid December. I then returned to the Delta, spent my second Christmas there and spent a few weeks trying to solve a cracking slab problem with the team.

And that my friends was the 14 month period when I had more time on my hands than anyone needed or wanted, but a period that allowed me to put together the various stages of my punting methodology, to decide how I would apply 5S to investing on horse races, how that information would be best adapted to the Lean methodology and finally deciding to share this information as I proved to myself that it could be successful.

To be Continued