The Basics of how each stable was built, how horses enter the stable and how our judicious selections are made…

The Stable/s

The judicious selections that we make are all for races in one State, one type of race with two Prize Money levels and over distances from 1000 to 1600 metres. These races are Maiden races, races for contestants that have not won a race previously.

We concentrate on Maiden races conducted in the State of Victoria, Australia.

We concentrate on Maiden races with a current total prize money for each race of either 27,000 AUD or 37,500 AUD.

We concentrate on Maiden races ran over distances from 1000 to 1600 metres.

We concentrate on races using the above criteria but only where we have the relevant data on a minimum 400 runners from previous races run.

Even when applying all of the above criteria, we do not automatically have a selection for each race. We apply historical data and when combined with its current form lines, decide whether we can make a judicious selection.

And finally, before investing on the horse ourselves or providing it as a selection for others, we decide if the price we are getting is a VALUE price.

Only then will a runner enter our Stables.

Stable - Velocity

We started building our stables based on the premise, a fact not an opionion, that the huge majority of races are won by the quickest horse in that race. But with every track a different shape and with its own quirks, how do we develop a Base Time to compare times at different tracks?

The only real base figures available were the race records. The race record on most occasions would have been ran in a close to or Open Handicap (BM100) race and more than likely on a lightning fast track. One of those hen’s teeth tracks that are seldom produced today. But, comparing race times based purely on the distance raced is a sure way to be eating 2 minutes noodles for dinner. I thought that if you take a bit a time and effort in analysing this info. the cray fish maybe coming your way.

We grouped Good 3 & Good 4 rated tracks together, Soft 5 & Soft 6 together, Soft 7 & Heavy 8 together and finally combined Heavy 9 & Heavy 10 track conditions.

Further details on track conditions can be found in the How To Read a Form Guide dropdown under Triggers Stable.

Now that our early information is historic information, we know that how we rated different tracks and different track conditions correctly. However, as part of our Continuous Improvement plan, we review the Velocity times al least annually if not on a six month basis.

The Base rating for each race type is 90. If a horse achieves a Velocity rating of 89.60 or lower, any horse that finished within 2.6 lenghths of it enters this Stable. They can remain is this stable for up to nine months.

Establishing the Velocity stable also greatly assisted us in providing the knowledge of what explicit data to concentrate on when building the stables that followed.

Stable - Oohood

Oohood, probably the most unlikely horse to have anything named after her let alone one of Trigger’s Stables. Oohood amassed more than 1.5 million AUD in prize money despite only ever winning one race. The mighty Oohood however ran six placings at the top level before her win and a third in her subsequent start.

So it stands to reason that horses in the Oohood Stable are recommended to be backed to run the place.

The same details are kept as in Phillip’s Stable to enter Oohood but these stable members come from the Maiden winners rated in eleventh to twentieth in the list.

Not surprisingly, horses also stay in this stabe for up to 35 days.

Stable - Purple

Purple is a color associated with Royalty, luxury, ambition and wealth a fantastic color to be associated with backing winners. We associate the color with the term of “having a Purple patch”. A period of excellent performance, where nearly everything seems to go right.

From our records we have garnered the information from races previously run and have had many winners result form those behind the winner. From the over 4,500 races that we have the results recorded for only five racers have produced 6 future winners come from them, thirteen races have produced 5 future winners and eighty two races have produced 4 future winners. It’s just a fluke that those race numbers add up to one hundred.

When we have a new winner that matches the KPI’s of these one hundred previous winners, we are expecting a Purple Patch of winners.

Once again, these horses, again, only stay in the Silver Stable for 35 days.

Trainer Aaron Purcell’s stable silks are predominantly the color purple.

Stable - Silver

Hi Yo Silver, Away! Ho Yo? Yes, Hi Yo. After spending my childhood shouting Hi Ho and slapping the side of my thigh and galloping away on my faithful (imagenary) steed, roughly 12 years ago I discovered that the Lone Ranger was actually shouting Yo. But enough fluff, if our main Stable complex can be named after favourite childhood, why can’t we name one after the second fave. And every cloud does have a Silver lining.

From fandom.com

“They (the Lone Ranger & Tonto) soon find the white horse engaged in a death battle with a buffalo, who has already wounded the horse and is about to finish it off when it is shot and killed by the Lone Ranger. The Masked Man and Tonto nurse the horse back to health, and though he badly wants the horse for his own, the Lone Ranger also understands that the horse has fought for his freedom and deserves to be free. When Tonto remarks that the horse, it's coat glistening in the sun, looks "silver white", the Lone Ranger calls out to him using the name "Silver", and for reasons stronger than gratitude, the horse decides to stay with him”.

We use weighted values from our strongest KPI’s to give each race run a “strength” value. Some of the winners of these strong races enter the Silver Stable, most don’t.

Should Today’s runner have finished within a predetermined margin of a Stable member and Today’s race is weighted at a lesser strength than previous, it is considered to be a possible investment today.

Again, horses can stay in the Silver stable for up to 35 days.

Stable - Phillip

This Stable is named in honour of argubly Australia’s greatest race horse and as he was bred in New Zealand, we have named the Stable with a Kiwi accent.

Based on basic form that is available to all punters, we enter the data for all maiden winners. We then separate different parts of the form and weight the form details with different values. The higher the resulting value the higher the ranking. The Top Ten rated winners become part of Phillip’s Stable.

If Todays runner has finished within a predetermined distance of a Stable Member it is considered for Today’s race. Simple really.

Horses stay in Phillip’s stable for up to 35 days. This handicap system is also ideal for comparing past Maiden winners when competing against each other in BM races.

For a detailled explantion of the BM Rating system go to How To Read a Form Guide dropdown under Triggers Stable.

The number of maide races ran in Victoria. Synthetic not included.

Stable - The Pie

Everyone wants a piece of The Pie and everyone watched the TV series National Velvet when growing up. The horse in the original National Velvet starring Elizabeth Taylor was named The Pie so we thought this an appropriate name for this Stable.

At Triggers stable we dislike averages as averages rarely supply useful information. However, we have also eaten some average tasting pies over the years so we use them here.

We use historic information from previous runnings of this type of race, track, distance and Maiden type. We compare this to Today’s runners previous start and qualifiers are considered as contenders. This is the stable that can have the most contenders for Today’s race.

Runners can be in this stable every time they run but Trigger applies his specially formulatedost glyphosate-based herbicide to weed out non winners.

Vinegar Spray

Recipe:

Acetic acid is the scientific name given to vinegar. The vinegar we drown our chips in is usually 5% acetic acid. You may need to source stronger 20% acetic acid vinegar you’re at your garden centres if your weeds are particularly stubborn. Simply pour your vinegar into a spray bottle and you’re ready to go.

Things to watch out for:

Vinegar will kill almost anything green (if only, there are a few Green politicians it will not effect at all), so be careful you don’t spray your flowers too. For this reason, it’s best not using it to kill weeds on the lawn.

Stable - Periwinkle

Periwinkle is a colour that is a shade of Purple. A periwinkle is also a lovely flower and also a name for any small marine snail of the family Littorinidae. They are widely distributed on rocky shores. But if you follow the Periwinkle Stable you will not be washed up upon rocky shores.

Simply the Periwinkle Stable is an extension of the Purple Stable but we have added the races that have produced 3 future winners from them and analysed that extra data.

Yup, they have 35 days to produce the goods and if they have, we will ake a snap decision to see if they should stay in the Stable a while longer before being sent for a spell.

Other Stables

There are three other Stables that make up the entirety of Trigger’s Stable.

Two are the most successful of the Stables and the other is a new stable, currently under construction. With the Stable under construction, we are yet to decide whether it merits being ran alongside the other successful stables.

With the two very successful stables, I currently have deals in place to give the selections from these to a couple of buyers of the tips. Those deals are due to expire at the end of March 2024 and renegotiations will then take place.

I find myself in a good position to be able to keep mu current clients happy while making these judicious selections available to thers.

STAY TUNED!